Трамп против Байдена: президентская кампания в цифрах и фактах
Политика
Как выбирают президента
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Президент США избирается непрямым голосованием. После подсчета голосов избирателей в каждом из штатов формируется коллегия выборщиков, которые 14 декабря должны выбрать президента. Голосовать они будут в соответствии с тем, как проголосовали избиратели в штате. Если в Техасе большинство будет, например, у Трампа, то и все выборщики от штата должны проголосовать за него. После того как сенат в начале января утвердит результаты выборов, 20 января 2021 года пройдет инаугурация 46-го президента США (или 45-го, если им останется Трамп).
Всего от штатов 538 выборщиков, для победы надо заручиться поддержкой 270. Штаты с наибольшим числом избирателей имеют и наибольшее число выборщиков.
Что выборы в США принесут России
Источники СМИ в российских властных структурах говорят, что в Москве тревожатся из-за возможной смены власти в США и что победа Байдена станет «плохой новостью». Официально, впрочем, Кремль заявляет о готовности работать с любым президентом, будь то Трамп или Байден.
Для российской экономики в первую очередь важно, как при новом президенте изменится санкционная политика. В случае победы Трампа можно ждать, что для России мало что поменяется (но и тут нужно учитывать непредсказуемость действующего президента). Байден декларирует резкое изменение политики в отношении Москвы. «Они [русские] заплатят цену, и это будет цена для их экономики», — заявил Байден на одной из встреч с избирателями.
Выльется ли жесткая риторика Байдена в адрес России (в случае его избрания) в конкретные действия, пока неясно. Но эксперты сходятся во мнении, что неопределенность страшнее президентства Байдена, а большинство рисков уже заложены в российский рынок.
Связанный с выборами риск уже достаточно давно в стоимость рубля включил и валютный рынок, полагают аналитики. Но в последнюю неделю перед голосованием рубль резко пошел вниз. А 2 ноября рубль ушел в пике до многомесячных минимумов. Впрочем, причина волатильности не только в предстоящих выборах, но и в ухудшении ситуации с коронавирусом в мире, а также в падении цен на нефть.
Как выборы в США повлияют на российскую экономику. Что важно знать
Экономика
Кого еще избирают 3 ноября
В этот день избирается нижняя палата конгресса — 435 представителей. Сейчас в нижней палате большинство у демократов (232 голоса), у республиканцев 197, еще один член палаты — либертарианец.
В сенате большинство у республиканцев: из 100 членов — 53 республиканца, 45 — демократы, два сенатора беспартийные. 3 ноября будет избрана треть сената.
От того, у кого большинство, зависит прохождение президентских инициатив, согласование бюджета. Республиканское большинство в сенате оправдало Трампа в ходе импичмента, хотя большинство в нижней палате считало президента виновным.
По прогнозам, демократы сохранят большинство в палате представителей. У них также хорошие шансы на получение большинства в сенате, но исход голосования в верхнюю палату менее предсказуем.
Авторы
Анастасия Антипова, Полина Химшиашвили
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